Are High Radon Levels in Montana Leading to High Cancer Rates?
Abstract
The purpose of our research is to model radon levels in Montana alongside cancer rates, particularly lung cancer. By modeling each of these datasets, we hope to detect if there is any correlation between high radon levels in Montana and their lung cancer rates. Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer according to the CDC. Since it is known that many areas of Montana have high radon levels, our group aims to see if these high levels directly impact lung cancer rates in the state.
We will be collecting the majority of our data from government sites which accurately collect and publish their results. Using Excel, we will be able to quantify the given information into forms of data which can be used in geospatial software. To model and display our data, we will be utilizing the ArcGIS programs. To get a stronger idea of the impact radon levels have on lung cancer rates, we may focus our research on a smaller but more specific area within Montana which exhibits high radon levels. By doing so, we will be able to minimize additional factors and elucidate our results. We must also factor in any other potential causes of lung cancer which may skew our results. For example, smoking is the number one cause of lung cancer in the United States, therefore we would need to consider that information when interpreting our results.
Through our research we will identify if there is a correlation between radon and lung cancer rates in Montana. Radon occurs naturally in areas abundant in uranium. The release of uranium from rocks and soil can lead to lung cancer if exposed at high levels in concentrated, indoor areas. With this information and the data we collect throughout our research, we may be able to find a correlation between radon levels and lung cancer rates in Montana (“Montana Radon”, n.d.). However, since cigarette smoking is also a leading cause of lung cancer, it may be difficult to directly relate radon levels and lung cancer if the smoking rates in the area of study are high. We must factor in any information on smoking habits in Montana when analyzing our results. We predict that through the modeling of this data we will be able to find that there is a direct correlation between radon levels and lung cancer rates throughout Montana.
Background
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Radon
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Radon is formed by Uranium, an element found in all rocks to some degree but certain rocks have higher concentrations which produce higher radon levels (The Geology of Radon, n.d.).
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Rocks with high Uranium concentrations include: “light-colored volcanic rocks, granites, dark shales, sedimentary rocks that contain phosphate, and metamorphic rocks derived from these rocks” (The Geology of Radon, n.d.).
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Radon exposure is the leading environmental cause of cancer in North America (Larsson, 2015).
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The US EPA and Surgeon General urge people to test their homes for radon exposure since that is the only way to know if it is there. It can typically take years of being exposed to this chemical before any problems arise, but by then it is too late. (Radon Fact Sheet, n.d.)
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Radon can find its way into our water supplies by dissolving into ground water sources, which can be ingested or released into the air when turning on faucets to cook, shower, etc. (Radon, n.d.).
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Each year, radon exposure accounts for 21,000 deaths in the U.S. (Larsson, 2015).
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The ultimate source of radon can be traced to the element Uranium through radioactive decay (U.S. Geological Survey, 1995).
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The ejection of an alpha particle from the nucleus is the first step of Radon being formed (U.S. Geological Survey, 1995).
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Radon has high mobility since it is a gas and can travel between fractures and pore holes to the surface based on given permeability (U.S. Geological Survey, 1995).
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A picocurie represents the rate of radioactive decay of radon in one liter of air over a 24-hour period (Kansas State, n.d.).
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Cigarette Smoking
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18.9% of adults in Montana smoke cigarettes. This is above the national average of 17.5% (Montana tobacco, 2017).
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Health care costs directly linked to smoking is about $440 million each year for the state of Montana (Montana Tobacco, 2017).
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Demographics
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Montana’s population for 2018 is estimated to be about 1.06 million (Montana Population, 2018).
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While Montana is the fourth largest state in the country as far as size, the topography of Montana makes it unsuitable for significant numbers of inhabitants (Montana Population, 2018).
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89% of Montana’s population is Caucasian, 6% is Native Indian American, 2% is Mixed, 2% is Asian, and the rest of the population is considered “some other race”. Montana’s population is 51% Male and 49 % female (Suburban Stats, n.d.).
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Lung Cancer
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According to the Center for Disease Control, high lung cancer mortality rates are considered to be greater than 48.5 per 100,000 (Lung Cancer, 2017).
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Images taken by Paige Given
Images taken by Paige Given
Images taken by Paige Given
Images taken by Paige Given
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Collection of Data
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We collected the data for our research from the EPA and ArcGIS online database.
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Load the Data into ArcGIS
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Once we collected each set of data, we loaded the information into ArcGIS.
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Manipulate Data
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Once the data is loaded into ArcGIS, we must then proceed to manipulate the data to ensure that the final product accurately portrays the information we are trying to convey.
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We start by creating a new file geodatabase. We then use the Feature Class to Feature Class tool to convert each data layer into a feature class within the data base. Then, if necessary for the dataset, we will use the Feature to Raster tool.
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Next, we use Query Builder in the Properties portion of each data layer so that our data only displays for the state of Montana.
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We can then manipulate the Symbology of the information so that the specific point we are trying to highlight is easier to visualize.
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After these steps, we do any additional processing that the data may require. This step varies for each data layer. Examples of this include adding data to the attribute table or importing additional data by using Excel, as well as using the Clip and Dissolve tools.
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Finally, we make sure that any and all relevant information is properly labeled and visible on the display.
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Create Map Layout
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Once our data is properly processed, we then proceed to create a map layout with all necessary components to present our data and export the data as a map package and an image file.
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Analyze the Results
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Once our data is displayed on maps, we will be able to compare the results for each map and determine if there is any significant correlation between radon and lung cancer in Montana.
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Conclusion
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After we properly analyze our results and determine if there is any connection between radon and lung cancer, we will begin to form a conclusion for our research.
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Methods
Results
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Conclusion
Upon the completion of our research and interpretation of our results, we found that there is a correlation between high levels of radon and high lung cancer mortality rates present within Montana. When viewing areas such as Broadwater, Jefferson, Silver Bow, Deer Lodge, and Granite we see that each of these counties are classified as Radon Zone 1, meaning that the area has a radon screening level of greater than 4 pCi/l, as well as with high concentrations of lung cancer mortality cases. These counties also house many uranium mines which would likely have a significant impact on the radon concentrations for the county and therefore could also contribute to the significant amount of mortality rates for these areas. These counties range from mid-range populations to large populations. While reviewing the results of our research, some counties exhibited high radon concentrations but low lung cancer mortality rates, such as Garfield County. However, the results for these counties could be due to the relatively low populations for these areas, with populations ranging from about 600 to 3500 citizens, not thoroughly representing the sample population. When working with lung cancer data, it is important to consider other factors which may contribute to high incidence or mortality rates. Since smoking is one of the leading causes of lung cancer in the United States, we wanted to ensure that our results were not skewed by the presence of cigarette smoking within the state. Through our research we found that not all areas with high smoking rates had significantly higher lung cancer rates. Glacier County had a high rate of lung cancer and high smoking rate, but it also had Zone 1 Radon Levels. Therefore, it would be hard to determine if this county’s lung cancer cases were due to the radon levels or the population’s smoking rate. However, Powell County displayed relatively low smoking rates and had the highest rate for lung cancer within the state. Powell County also has high radon levels so it serves as a strong example of radons effect on lung cancer in Montana. Both Glacier and Powell have populations in the mid-range for Montana. Overall, with the data we have collected it can be seen that while the effect of smoking may increase the lung cancer rates for certain counties, there is a direct correlation between high radon levels and lung cancer in Montana.